Empathy, Intuition, Self-Awareness

Is there ever a time when there isn't any news that moves market? Nope, its always buzzing with what's happening now. Often, the market movement are the news maker - typically, the media covers "after-the-fact" news with interviews and citing any slightest cause that would be deemed reasonable and digestible by the readers as the... Continue Reading →

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The Art of War: How to beat a strategist in the futures market?

Strategy: core directional choices that best best moves you into your desired future Tactics: specific actions that will best implement your strategies Without a core strategy to anchor all tactics suggestions to see which best FIT (feasible, impactful, timely) the strategy, one could randomly suggest tactics that makes the discussion chaotic. Focus on one strategy... Continue Reading →

Recap: Trading the Curve jargons

Short end vs. Long end As you come across short rate interest rate mean-reversion models i.e. Hull-White model that has a time-dependent long term rate and time-dependent short term rate, there are short term policy rates that prices expectations of changes in policy rate that transmits through the entire curve, as well as the long... Continue Reading →

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

While I am a believer of APT more than of CAPM, I will share some of my findings on CAPM. CAPM has many flaws: there are capital taxes, high transaction cost on illiquid securities with few floating shares, licensed leveraged funds do influence prices with outsized positions, different analyst has a different expectations of a... Continue Reading →

Is inflation targeting still a macroprudential goal for central banks? What does a large foreign exchange reserve means?

Concerns about recent Fed hiking was also about the years of undershooting inflation targets set by the Fed, and the Fed behind the curve with respect to rising inflation. Accordingly, policy should be set with a view to achieving modestly above-target inflation, perhaps 2.3 or even 2.5 per cent, during a boom with the expectation that... Continue Reading →

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